Trading

How to trade outcome tokens and express your views on proposal probabilities.

Depositing Collateral

Before trading, you need to deposit collateral into the market. Call deposit() with the market ID and amount of collateral tokens. A single deposit grants trading credits across all current and future proposals -- there is no need to deposit per proposal.

Making Trades

Trading happens through standard Uniswap V4 swaps. On the market detail page, select a proposal and choose to increase or decrease your confidence in it. The trading panel shows:

  • Current amplitude (probability) for the proposal
  • Estimated price impact of your trade
  • Your existing position (if any)

How Pricing Works

The hook intercepts each swap and applies the LMSR pricing curve. When you buy shares of a proposal:

  • Its amplitude (probability) increases
  • All other proposals' relative probabilities decrease
  • The cost depends on the current probability distribution and the liquidity parameter

Prices are always between 0 and 1, and the sum of all proposal probabilities equals 1. This makes it easy to interpret amplitudes as the market's collective prediction.

Reading Amplitudes

Amplitude bars on the market detail page show real-time probability weights for each proposal. These update after every trade. The getAmplitudes() view function returns the raw values for programmatic access.

Position Management

Your positions across proposals are tracked automatically. The market detail page shows your current exposure and unrealized P&L. Remember:

  • Positions in the winning proposal pay out proportionally at settlement
  • Positions in losing proposals are reverted -- you get your principal back
  • Only executed trades are at risk; untraded deposit credits are safe